Posted on: January 18, 2013
2012 brought us an impressive roster of IPOs and the highest returns for venture capitalists in for more than a decade. So what’s next for the VC scene?
Well, we’re predicting plenty more IPOs, given candidates like hot cloud startups (Dropbox and Box), enterprise SaaS companies (like Zendesk) and maybe even some long-shots (Twitter, Gilt Groupe or LivingSocial). Below peHUB breaks down some of the 2013 candidates, and throws in odds to boot…
1. Box and Dropbox
2. Zendesk
3. Wayfair
4. Tableau
5. SugarCRM
6. Will They/Won’t They
Two companies, valuations reportedly up to $8 billion in aggregate. What’s not to like? How about Apple’s forthcoming cloud product and Google’s intrusion into the space. What is to like? Quite a bit. In its pitch to VCs when it raised a late 2011 mega-round, Dropbox pegged this year’s revenue expectations at a whopping $260 million. And, as for Box.net or Dropbox, well, there’s a 1:1 shot that backers will at least have an opportunity to exit in 2013 (either/or would be a darling M&A target for a mega-corporate) but let’s just worry about the IPO odds: a combined 67%.
After all the noise that’s been made about the enterprise space in 2012, Zendesk is just one of a number of SaaS companies poised to become hits with investors in 2013. Of course, it doesn’t help to have sources: peHUB
was told last year that Zendesk was a likely IPO candidate for 2013, most likely in the second half of the year. Odds: 75%.
Will they or won’t they? The company’s revenue growth has been substantial enough to satisfy institutional and retail investors, but the CEO of
Wayfair insists they’ve really only been the brand we see today for a year. Still, with $200 million in VC investment, 2013 is likely the time for Wayfair. Odds 45%.
Who says Seattle’s done being a big tech scene? Certainly not Tableau, which, if this Bloomberg
report is to believed, is lining up an IPO for the first half of the year. Backed with just $15 million, lone VC backer NEA might want to take in a mega-round and spend more time on private markets. Maybe we’re just skeptics, but for a computer forensics firm, let’s stick with odds of 50% for ’13.
Pour some sugar on them.
SugarCRM, the California-based customer relationship management software firm, has already been drumming up the chatter for a ’13 IPO. Given Workday’s performance on public markets, the company’s VCs—including SVB, NEA and DFJ (looks like a bad Scrabble hand!)—ought to also be chomping at the bit. Odds, a generous 75%.
While we’re in the business of oddsmaking for IPOs that will come, we’ve got a few picks for those that won’t as well. LivingSocial is one company that has seen its private market value freefall to the point that few institutional investors would lick their chops at the opportunity to buy in; Tim O’Shaughnessy should pray for M&A instead (IPO odds: a still-generous 15%). Twitter? Just maybe, our Connie Loizos reported recently (we’re going with 50%). Then, there’s Gilt Groupe. As former peHUB scribe Erin Griffith
reported, there have been a slew of personnel losses, but in spite of this, the company might have righted itself. For Gilt Groupe, we’ll generously put the company’s odds of an IPO at 25 percent.
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