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Nasdaq, AOL or Yahoo – The Next/Last Great Venture Exit?
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More than Nasdaq or AIM, Yahoo has become in recent years The Great Venture Exit. Nestled in Sunnyvale only a Prius’s putter away from Google HQ, the elderstatesman of the Internet was only yesterday the contemplated ramp to riches for many college-aged entrepreneurs hoping to cash their internet traffic for a cool $1.65 billion. So I have been watching with great concern the dark clouds descend upon this golden ramp of Silicon Valley. I’ve been following the company to handicap one of two outcomes possible from the company’s travails. One is the likelihood that it continues to use M&A to bolster the “white spaces” in its offerings. The other more realistic path is that it may spin-out groups and technologies while it dukes it out with Google. You’ve Got Mail Alas, the garden was sitting in Yosemite Valley and eventually (a LONG time later) many recognized that benefits of avoiding the walled garden all together. This awakening took a long time and was aided by the billions of “40 hours free” CD-ROMs bundled with every piece of paper that didn’t come in a roll. The technical term for these dog chews was “customer acquisition costs.” Today AOL is a quaint relic which serves only as leading indicator for the future of Yahoo. The parallels are striking, in my humble opinion. Sure there is Yahoo Mail, and Finance, and Flickr, and one or two other destinations. Yes, I understand that traffic is great and growing (just like AOL’s did during its fabled denouement). But is it relevant? Does anyone care if it goes away? I use a few services on Yahoo, from email to my.yahoo.com to finance, and yet, should any of them go away, my regret would be shortlived. I contrast this with Ebay, Google, Amazon, or Expedia (some of the other Survivors from Web 1.0). Take away my Google search and I might pack it in for the evening. I don’t think I’ve ever used Yahoo’s own search engine. Flickr is good for users, not great, and I suspect a loss-leader at best for the company. For the sake of venture liquidity, I hope Yahoo figures out how to get back on track. Nasdaq needs some competition.
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December 13th, 2006 at 12:49 am
For years, I’ve been saying that no one would miss Yahoo if it were gone tomorrow, but if Google suddenly disappeared I would be at a loss cos that’s where I do my searching… Like you, I have never used Yahoo’s search engine…
Yahoo is just trying way too hard. They need to spin off some of their operations or at the very least stop acquiring everything in sight that could possibly compete with Google!
I wonder how they’ll compete with Google’s new stock option platform…. Is there a company out there that will do that for them? if there is, I’m sure Yahoo will snap it up
December 13th, 2006 at 9:27 am
A freind of mine, Frank Yu, who works for Microsoft in Beijing predicted the big demise of Yahoo! right around the time Google was positioning for it’s IPO. He gave Yahoo’s relevance another 2 to years at most, and thought that the only real players left would then be Google and Microsoft.
This timeframe has now come and gone. I it’s clear to me that, if anything, the Internet expands diversity of choice rather than consolidate it. Yahoo! may not continue to grow by leaps and bounds, and Yahoo! may not be THE biggest Internet company anymore, but Yahoo is not exactly the AOL walled garden either.
In 5 years, Yahoo! will still be around and will still be relevant. At least 3 to 5 new Internat companies will come to the forefront become the size of Yahoo!, Ebay, or Amazon. Perhaps they may not become quite as dominant as Microsoft was, or Google is becoming now, but they will be relevant and significant. Alibaba for one will likely stamp a huge IPO, and more will follow.
June 27th, 2007 at 7:23 pm
[...] Six months ago, I said only an illegal immigrant from Mars wouldn’t notice the growing irrelevance of Yahoo (my article, written for PE Hub, is behind its registration wall). [...]
August 10th, 2007 at 4:48 pm
[...] Six months ago, I said only an illegal immigrant from Mars wouldn’t notice the growing irrelevance of Yahoo (my article, written for PE Hub, is behind its registration wall). [...]
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