The End of Writing?
Tim Draper delivered the opening keynote at today’s Wharton Private Equity Conference, and spent a lot of time discussing the transformative power of new technology. One comment that stood out was about writing, and the idea that it could become antiquated within just another generation or two.
What would replace it? Video.
Draper argued that the act/art of writing became pervasive because it was the most convenient and commonly-accessible way for people to communicate ideas without having physical contact (both 1-to-1 and 1-to-Many). But today, he believes, video is beginning to become more convenient among younger people. Once it also can become more commonly accessible (i.e., affordable, mobile, etc.), it could become the communication medium of choice.
As an example, Draper mentioned that his son recently was asked to write 1,000 words or less on why he should be accepted into a certain film school. But Draper’s son didn’t write a thing: He just pasted in a picture. Exactly 1,000 words.
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Paul Kedrosky said on January 19, 2007
Nope, even if the “Revver-invested” Tim Draper wishes that were true. Teens are almost certainly doing more writing today than they were twenty years ago, not less. When you add up SMS, email, and chat, the total more than compensates for any supposed contraction in essay-writing, or the like.
If anything, the written language is growing and more dynamic than ever, largely because of the written contribution of the sub-21 set. Sorry Tim.
Chris Yeh said on January 20, 2007
I’ll echo Paul in opining that writing ain’t going anywhere.
One important reason is that reading has one key, often overlooked difference from video: The reader controls the speed at which he or she takes in information.
I hate video learning because it’s always too SLOW. I can read ~100 pages per hour, and skim even faster. No way video can match that for me.
On the other hand, video will be the best solution for folks who have difficulty reading, like dyslexics. There’s no reason one medium will dominate all others.
TV didn’t kill radio, and radio didn’t kill print. And thanks to the Internet, they’re now all converging.
Jon C. Ogg said on January 22, 2007
As more and more goes to video, the more fragmented the web becomes. Let’s take financial services and technology research as a duopoly and pretend that writing tapers off an it’s all video. How much of business related web surfing is spent on tech and financially related research by individuals? For everyone reading in here the answer is almost certainly MOST. Could you imagine all the researchers and smart bots that would have to watch endless videos when they are looking for more pertinent data? Video in this area requires a person to give the video full attention. With text-based writing it is possible to skim over hundreds of documents and articles in a fast period of time. Imagine trying to skim 200 videos and trying to determine based on past research how credible the video is. Draper’s a smart guy and video has value and will only grow, but the proliferation of web video is already becoming more of a nuisance for many in the financial and technology circles than it is the replacement of text. That’s my opinion, I could be wrong. -Jon C. Ogg; 24/7 Wall St.
Sarah T said on January 22, 2007
I agree with the above comments. I can’t imagine writing going away. The anecodote is silly too — it reminds me of an earlier article in the nytimes about investors making decisions based on their kids likes and dislikes. Not quite the best investment philosophy.
Paul Legrady said on January 22, 2007
See Amusing Ourselves to Death. The quality of our communication is linked to our method of communicating. Consigning ourselves to video would reduce much of our communication to chatter.