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The Next Big Thing is Upon Us
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My last posting suggested that growing fear global warming’s of the economic and ecological consequences of — and the usual greed for profits –would combine to provide emotional stimulus for the venture capital industry to lead the clean technology revolution. In addition to being in tune with the usual emotional motivators to investment and action, the VC industry also has the skills and smarts to lead the transition to a sustainable, global industrial society. As a group, we are skilled at identifying paradigm shifting opportunities for investment. Such opportunities are relatively rare, but when they arise, they often provide phenomenal returns. At Friday’s “State of the Valley” conference hosted by Joint Venture Silicon Valley (see www.jointventure.org), John Doerr of Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers called clean technology “the largest economic opportunity of the 21st century. “ Folks, the next big thing is upon us. In one of the few lucid moments of his presidency, President Bush admitted that we are addicted to oil. This simple statement may turn out to have been the greatest legacy of his presidency. The hardest thing for addicts is to admit their addiction. Our global industrial society’s addiction creates trade imbalances and geopolitical strife, and will cook the planet if we allow it to run its course. For a Texas oilman to admit our collective addiction is a huge step in the right direction. Before we blindly plow up the Great Plains to feed our addiction with corn based ethanol, why not take a hard look at our energy habits? Does each of us really need to consume as much energy as we do? Do we really need a three ton SUV to drive to Safeway to buy a quart of milk? While we are developing alternative energy technologies, we can take some of the pressure off the system by reducing our demand. Create negowatts by making our next luxury cars Civic or Prius hybrids. Let’s lead the paradigm shift with our behavior and our investments. To meet the challenge, we need bigger steps than these. Applying the lessons of the packet transport architecture of the internet to the transportation sector might yield surprising results. A network of completely solar powered electric vehicles on fixed guideways, with continuous solar arrays just the width of the guideway could create an efficient, zero emissions urban transportation network. More on this later. The point is, the venture capital industry thrives on change and paradigm shifting, out of the box thinking and is perfectly suited to lead the clean technology revolution. Your mail: Previous comments on the problem organized religions often have of being tolerant of other religions struck a raw nerve. Anyone interested in organizing an annual summit of all the leaders of the world’s religions to begin a dialog on this issue? Perhaps solving the climate problems will provide an opportunity for sparring faiths to build this tolerance by working together to create a sustainable, environmentally sound, global economic system.
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February 5th, 2007 at 8:27 am
Amen!
I fully agree with the comment that the biggest change needs to start with us personally! I live in the Bay Area and I am appalled at the hypocrisy that pervades this area when it comes to practising what you preach. For all the drum beating that Bay area denizens do about being environmentally conscious, the highest concentration of gas guzzling SUVs I see in the Bay Area.
Let’s remember Gandhi’s saying “We are the change we want to see in the world”.
For once. let’s shut up about how good we are and show the world how we practice it!
February 5th, 2007 at 8:44 am
Cheap Oil is one thing, cheap shots are another.
Why do you feel the need to bash the President in making your comments. “Few lucid moments.” Lets see: No terrorist attacks since 9/11, a growing economy, consistent record unemployment, tax breaks that have lead to surpluses despite the fact that the critics promised larger and larger deficits. The President inherited a recession which was quickly follwed by one of the greatest crisis this country has ever had. We are still standing and the President has done a lot of the dirty work that others will not do. Perfect no, lucid yes.
Since bashing is your style, maybe I will take a shot: Your comments here are hardly earth shattering; most have been covered in “USA Today” or “My Weekly Reader” over the past two years. And as far “largest economic opportunity”
February 5th, 2007 at 8:55 am
This is sophomoric drivel at best. however, there was one point made that in fact shows who the real villain is in global warming—the Sun!! As small increase in output by the Sun (solar storms or sunspots) will increase the radiation that hits the earth. Since the oceans are large energy absorbers, we have fluctuations in temperatures over time which will affect climates. The total output of mankind is about equal to a large volcanic eruption (think Krakatoa and the year without a summer). The global warming crowd are just chasing grants and taxes. The money would be better spent on medical research where we could really help our fellow man.
February 5th, 2007 at 8:56 am
R Hoff:
Your words painted quite a picture of you!
February 5th, 2007 at 9:46 am
I agree, but must ask why is this just now the “next big thing” - I mean that quote from Edison isn’t a new quote is it? Rather, it seems that people (VCs) have largely ignored this opportunity and largely waited “’til oil and coal run out” before paying any attention.
BTW - don’t think that Bush was admitting to anything in the context of “we should change” he was just bragging as that same old Texas oilman…
February 5th, 2007 at 10:42 am
I wonder what type of vehicle John drives?
February 5th, 2007 at 10:48 am
Admittedly, I probably don’t know as much about alleged “global warming” as I should, but it is hard for me to concentrate when it is 30 degrees below zero as it is outside my office window today…part of the coldest six-day stretch we’ve had in 6 years….what was it we were talking about???
February 5th, 2007 at 12:35 pm
Before being concerned about a trip in an SUV to the local grocery, why don’t we focus on the private jets that the clean VCs use to visit all their portfolio companies.
February 5th, 2007 at 12:41 pm
Okay,
Lets see how alert and really savvy VC-radars are — for a really WORLD CHANGING Earth Shattering prospect.
I and we - are in the Offshore Engineering and Construction Industry and know what we are talking about here.
ONE, we do not even need a prototype to prove this can be done.
TWO, we are ready to put a prototype together from all tried and tested equipment that we use day-in day-out to design and put out these OIL & GAS Platforms out in the sea for Exxons, Shells, Chevrons, … the list goes on.
For $80MM we can build out a 40MW generating plant with a NPV of $400MM @ 5% (very roughly).
We can have 10 of these along the coast of Texas and would probably provide all of Houston’s electricity.
50 of these along the coast of California would provide entire State of California with its needs!
The clincher: NO CO2 emissions - No Fossil Fuel Purchases - No “Waste” of Fossil resources (for plastics, etc.) - No dependencies on others - DOUBLE (DOUBLE!!!) Global Cooling to offset all the Global Warming to date !!! HOW? - ANS: Oceans get cooled and no CO2 emissions simultaneously !!!
Political problem? All the world’s POOR Nations will be able to do this without spending $$$’s on OIL !!!
Go calculate how much CO2 we will eliminate … we will have to balance this with Ocean-Cooling — which may not be a problem (to be calculated) as suns absorption/re-radiation into the sky at lower temperature will reach an equilibrium with electricity generated cooling.
ACTUALLY Enlightened Oil Companies will see a BRIGHT Future for themselves as holding a MAJOR VALUE ADDED market for their products for eternity: Plastics and other products that will be dreamt up.
There — call me if you want to put your $$$’s where everyone’s pontifications are! Phone will be given out once you email me through PE.
Ken.