We know where McCain and Obama stand on carried interest (for a rate hike/against it, respectively). And we know, thanks to Dan’s survey, where PEHub readers stand (pro-Obama). And we also know that this differs slightly from the donation habits of private equity professionals (increasingly pro-McCain).
But how will the election outcome affect your portfolio companies? Independent research firm Washington Analysis issued a very helpful side-by-side comparison chart on the ways each candidate’s policies might affect various industries, and even specific, publicly-traded companies.
In short, the survey predicts bad news for tax preparers like H&R Block and Jackson Hewitt under either of the candidate’s tax plans. Managed care operators may face risks under Obama’s universal health care plan, while those companies would receive a boost under McCain’s. Likewise McCain’s Medicare plan looks good for Medicare Advantage companies and bad for hospitals, nursing homes, home health agencies, oxygen suppliers. The inverse is true for Obama.
Leiber warns that ethanol producers like Archer Daniels Midland, Aventine, VeraSun and Pacific Ethanol might be in trouble is McCain is able to lift the tariff on foreign ethanol. Those same companies (and others in the ethanol and renewable and alternative energy industry) would benefit from Obama’s plan to continue with business as usual. It’s the major oil companies facing more pressure from Obama’s proposed policies.
For more of Lieber’s breakdown, including specifics on labor (this affects restaurants and retail), tobacco taxes, network neutrality, mortgage loans and defense spending, download the report here.