Why MicroHoo Doesn’t Yet Matter Here

I led this morning’s email by declaring it to be a “MicroHoo-free zone,” since the latest/greatest M&A story really doesn’t have much to do with private equity. Instead, I covered a giant private equity story – the ConvaTec carve-out – which has been overlooked in the MicroHoo hoopla.

But I’ve got a bit more space here at peHUB, so here’s a quartet of hypothetical scenarios under which the zone could someday be breached:

1. Microsoft is so distraught that it goes on a buying binge of VC-backed companies. In fact, you might also want to add some buyout-backed companies in there also, since we’re now talking about billions of dollars in dry powder.

2. Yahoo goes on a buying binge of its own, to prove it can regain past glory without being acquired. Maybe it would even get in a bidding war with Microsoft, just out of spite (can’t be dumber than turning down $33 per share).

3. Yahoo will merge with AOL, which would result in one fewer acquirer of VC-backed IT companies (something the MicroHoo collapse otherwise prevents).

4. Blackstone does a major tech deal, since partner and Jill Greenthal now has extra time on her hands (she has been advising Microsoft).