I had expected that this post would lead with something about how the Burger King mascot won’t be at Bain Capital’s annual meeting next week, but that Steve Pagliuca would bring along Greg Oden. That sounded so good approximately 14 hours ago, before I began yelling at my television set (exacerbated by a cameo appearance by the disastrous duo of Doc and Danny). But I digress… Back to Bain.
Most Bain limited partners are expecting some sort of fund-raising plans to be announced during the meeting, but I hear that they’ll probably be left hanging. The issue isn’t a lack of GP ambition or LP interest, but rather the fact that Bain can’t really define fundraising plans until it knows the outcome of both the Clear Channel and OSI Restaurants deals.
It’s now expected that both transactions will receive shareholder approval – thanks to upwardly-revised offers – which would mean that Bain’s tenth fund (including $2 billion co-invest vehicle) would be well over 60% committed. In other words, time to at least begin pre-marketing for the next fund.
But Bain probably would not need to begin fundraising yet if either of the deals fail (particularly Clear Channel, which also would result in a breakup fee of between $300m-$500m for Bain & TH Lee). Instead, it could postpone until late this year or perhaps even early 2008.
LPs expect the target to be somewhere in the range of $15 billion to $20 billion.