Shares of the parent of online job board Monster.com are down nearly 70 percent this year, with most of that loss coming since early July. A company that once boasted a multi-billion dollar market valuation is now worth less than $1 billion.
Worries over slowing U.S. and European economies have dragged down employment-related shares in recent weeks, but Monster has fallen harder than peers because it faces a second threat besides a possible double-dip recession: increased competition from social media.
For a graphic, see r.reuters.com/jud43s.
Monster serves as an illustration of how rapidly sites like LinkedIn and Facebook are creating wrenching changes for companies in the recruitment business.
LinkedIn’s Hiring Solutions business, roughly half of its sales, is forecast to reach $384 million in revenue next year from 2011’s estimated $243 million, according to JPMorgan.
With Monster and CareerBuilder together generating about $2 billion in annual revenue, that competition could hurt.
“The revenue impact will be so substantial that they could go into a tailspin,” said Doug Berg founder of Jobs2Web.com, in reference to Monster. His firm provides recruitment marketing services for Best Buy, General Electric Co and others.
Companies are building their own career sites and are savvier about using search engines to attract applicants. Microsoft, for example, optimizes search results so its openings are more visible.
LinkedIn and Facebook offer unprecedented access to information. Someone looking at a position at a company can now reach out to the person who has just left that job; an employer can quietly target people at a competitor with the same title.
Citigroup downgraded its view of Monster this month, in part because competition “appears to have become more material more quickly.” Deutsche Bank reiterated a “sell” rating, saying pricing appears soft and Monster is at a disadvantage to online peers.
Like many Internet stocks, Monster stock has never approached its 2000 peaks. But even as recently as 2007, the company, which was founded in 1994, was worth more than $6 billion and was considered a possible takeover candidate for Gannett, Yahoo! or Microsoft. Some speculated about a $60 per share buyout — it traded late on Wednesday at just $7.50.
Social media offers a cost-effective way to find skilled workers who may not be actively looking for a job, while those searching for work can connect with hiring managers or tap their network of contacts.
“LinkedIn is probably the best positioned and probably going to cause Monster and Dice the most problems moving forward,” said Morningstar analyst Vishnu Lekraj.
Apart from LinkedIn, Monster’s competitors include specialty jobs site operator Dice Holdings Inc as well as CareerBuilder.com, owned by several newspapers, Indeed.com and The Ladders.com for high-income earners.
It has a fast-growing presence in emerging markets, a well-established brand, and, for now, double-digit growth in job postings to its network of websites.
But in the near-term, concerns about slowing growth and pricing pressure dominate. Whether its stock slide represents an opportunity to buy into a company with a solid franchise at a low price or a sign that its best days are in the past depends on how a number of things play out soon.
The Internet recruiter typically signs a large number of its contracts to post job openings at the end of the calendar year and those contracts could be smaller this year, said Avondale Partners analyst Jim Janesky.
“There could be even increased pressure from competition when we are in a more difficult economy because a lot of aspects of social networking (are) free,” Janesky said.
Employers feel pressure to cut recruiting costs, but that could ease when and if the economy improves and hiring picks up, he added. If it does not, Monster would have to cut costs and scale back its marketing budget.
Recent jobs data have shown only modest U.S. employment growth and the jobless rate remains stuck above 9 percent.
The competitive pressure on Dice Holdings is less acute, Janesky said, because it specializes in higher-margin areas like finance and energy, unlike a generalist like Monster.
Janesky rates both Dice and Monster “outperform,” partly because of their international prospects. In emerging markets, the migration of classified ads from print to the Internet is still in its early stages.
Monster, too, is looking to capitalize on social networks. In June it launched an application, “BeKnown,” that encourages Facebook users to refer friends for jobs, or see what contacts are connected to a company where they’re seeking work.
BeKnown has won praise for separating personal from professional profiles, but daily active users are down by a third from July peaks, according to analytics tracker AppData.
The company has moved beyond a business model that relies purely on job postings, said Monster spokesman Matt Henson.
“We are moving to a platform-agnostic model that meets every recruiter need,” Henson said. “If you’re a recruiter and you want an integrated solution, that’s where we’ve gotten.”
Monster CEO Sal Iannuzzi has said social networks are “beneficial” to Monster by allowing it to offer more products and said the company can enjoy robust demand even if customers shift some portion of their budgets.
(Reporting by Nick Zieminski and Bijoy Koyitty)