peHUB First Read

Some links to kick off your post-holiday Monday:

* Big tax trouble for wealthy Americans living in the UK. Makes that two-year assignment to the London office a bit less appealing…

* No billion dollar buyouts today in the States, but we’ve got one in Russia.

* Fred Wilson says on past performance as a predictor of future VC returns. Not surprisingly, he finds the correlation to be positive — save for two caveats that can be summed up as “You’re in trouble if you don’t stick to your original knitting.” Good rule of thumb, although I’m not sure it’s terribly ironclad. Look at the trouble Sevin Rosen and ComVentures got into, in part, because they kept their investment strategy focused on troubled sectors. Moreover, look at the ROI success a firm like Menlo Ventures has experienced, despite its massive fund size. Oh, and then there is Adeo Ressi theory (“Ted” of TheFunded.com) that past performance as predictor pales in comparison to current behavior/etiquette. Hmmm… I think I may have just found my PE Week Wire column. So more there.

* Tips on investing in alternative fuel vehicle makers, from Darryl Siry of Tesla Motors (yeah, a VC-backed alternative fuel vehicle maker).

* E*Trade Financial back on the block. No PE names listed among the bidders (yet?)

* European institutions expect alternative asset returns to decline over the next few years, but still plan to invest plenty of euros.