Over 2,200 readers participated in our final presidential poll before the election, and Obama topped McCain by a margin of 54% to 35 percent. This is a massive jump from our prior poll in July, when Obama led just 41% to 40% among decided readers, and 50% to 48% when leaners were included (leaners this time split evenly).
It is also a much wider gap than we saw back in 2004, when readers narrowly picked George Bush over John Kerry (note: yesterday’s reader sample favored Kerry in that election by 2 percentage points).
Before getting into the nitty-gritty, let me stress that this poll is totally unscientific. It’s a self-selected snapshot of Wire/peHUB readers who, on average are: Men between the ages of 18-49, who make between $100,000 and $350,000 per year and who live in major metropolitan areas. But, to reiterate, we polled the same demographic back in July, and it was much, much closer.
Here are the results, from 2,219 respondents on October 23, 2008:
Who do you plan to vote for in next month’s presidential election?
- John McCain (35%)
- Barack Obama (54%)
- Leaning McCain (4%)
- Leaning Obama (4%)
- Third-party candidate (1%)
- Don’t plan to vote (2%)
How would you describe your party affiliation:
- Democrat (24%)
- Republican (24%)
- Lean Democrat (14%)
- Lean Republican (16%)
- Independent (21%)
- Other (2%)
Is your decision partially based on which candidate you believe would be better for your industry:
- Yes (38%)
- No (62%)
What do you think is the single most important issue facing the next president?
- Economy (75%) – Note: Only 55% picked Economy in July poll.
- Education (3%)
- Environment (2%)
- Foreign policy, including Iraq/Afghanistan (17%)
- Healthcare (3%)
- Homeland security (3%)
- Social issues, including abortion (1%)
- Social security/Medicare (2%)
- Other (3%)
Who did you vote for in 2004?
- George W. Bush (45%)
- John Kerry (47%)
- Other (8%)
My guess is that neither presidential candidate wants to be known for being the favorite of private equity pros, so perhaps this is a double-edged sword for Obama. And this poll includes remarkably few plumbers. On the other hand, it jives with national polling trends, and may indicate an early night’s sleep for all on November 4…