It’s Not a Bubble, People; It’s a Pyramid Scheme
Mark Cuban knows a thing or two about bubbles, having profited handsomely from an earlier Internet boom. But ask him if we’re seeing Bubble 2.0 and he’ll give you a different theory.
“It’s almost the 2011 version of a private equity chain letter,” says Cuban, who sold Broadcast.com to Yahoo in 1999 for $5.7 billion and went on to buy the the NBA’s Dallas Mavericks.
“Remember the old chain letter, where you put up some money, then you got other people to put up some money, and you gave it to the people who were in the deal before you? That’s what’s happening today,” says Cuban. “The early [VCs] are getting the new [VCs] to invest enough money at high enough valuations that they get most, if not all of their money back. Then the next round [sees] someone else invest more money at a higher valuation, returning cash to the last two rounds of investors. By the time you get to the last [VC] standing, those last few rounds hope they can get a return from the public markets. That may be very tough. But the only players really on the hook are the guys from the last rounds. Just like in a chain letter.”
It’s a valid point. As certain Internet company valuations reach astronomic new heights, it’s easy to conclude that Silicon Valley has spawned another giant bubble–one that will eventually bounce its way onto the public market and soak investors. But unlike the dot.com mania of a decade ago, today’s soaring valuations don’t involve hundreds of companies and thousands of retail investors. They center on a select group of wealthy VCs chasing after a comparatively small number of very richly valued tech companies–most of which are in Silicon Valley.
Over the last three months alone, Facebook’s roughly $33 billion valuation has roughly doubled, to an estimated $60 billion. Zynga’s reported valuation has jumped to upwards of $9 billion from $4 billion last May. And both pale in comparison to Twitter, which generated an estimated $150 million in revenue in 2010 yet has reportedly received overtures that peg its worth at between $8 billion and $10 billion. (Just two months ago, when Kleiner Perkins led a $200 million investment in Twitter, its valuation was $3.7 billion.)
Fueling the fire are firms like Andreessen Horowitz, which last week sunk $80 million into secondary shares of Twitter, and Kleiner Perkins, which this week threw $38 million at Facebook shareholders to (finally) add the company to its portfolio. But they’re certainly not alone. According to the secondary shares marketplace SecondMarket, VCs have represented the majority of SecondMarket’s buyers since the third quarter of 2010 and they accounted for more than 40 percent of its transactions in the fourth quarter.
Maybe the VCs truly believe that Facebook, Twitter, Groupon and Zynga are on the cusp of becoming among the most valuable companies in the world. But it may also be true that they believe they can sell their shares to a greater fool. (JPMorgan’s planned social media fund jumps to mind.)
Either way, when the chain ultimately ends, few, including Cuban, will feel terribly sorry for those left holding empty envelopes.
“When the market has a correction, stock prices will correct dramatically, and that sound you’ll hear from the Valley?” says Cuban. “[It] will be of a fund manager screaming, ‘Sh_t!’ as he turns out the light on his fund.”
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Vlad said on February 17, 2011
So use it and abuse it
Social Media Colombia said on February 17, 2011
Wow, I never saw it that way!! But it is very plausible, since in the end the valuation it is not made based on a company revenues but on investors hopes of returns of investments in a shorter time. Now that I think about it, if Facebook and Zynga has an alliance (check how many times a day you recieve CityVille invitations), it means that the income one is generating (Zynga) is affecting the income the other one is showing on its stats (Facebook), so if the first one fails, the other one will follow, if not in the same proportion at least the damage will be high.
Thanks for the post
Jeff said on February 17, 2011
Title: Crooked markets are being cooked up
Following the Recession, that was bad enough to be “great”, you’d think investors would be more vigilant. Most investors are unsophisticated and fail to perform the due diligence necessary to make a well informed investment decision. Banks took advantage of this in the subprime market and now they’re taking advantage of it again in the secondary market with their “special purpose investment vehicles (SPIV).” Goldman or JP makes an investment then sells that position off to its clients. How do Goldman and JP make profit from this transaction? Simple, they sell the equity for more than they bought it which means their customers get an overpriced derivative with out any oversight or voting rights on their investment. I think the SPIVs have further implications…consider the incentives a bank has whos clients invested in a company via that bank’s SPIV and is now being taken public by the same bank. Until the lockup expires the banks are all incentivised to pump the stock, so they can introduce more SPIVs and continue the cycle. The banks could care less about a bubble, they’re selling off any risk to unsophisticated investors without experience …..SPIVs from Goldman/JP, unregulated secondary markets, or groups like Advanced Equities are feeding the bubble 2.0
alan p said on February 17, 2011
This is just the early stages, the ponzi scheme does not stop with the late VC’s they have to find Bigger Fools to sell their stake to etc etc, and so it goes…..
Jo Dean said on February 17, 2011
Wow, this makes a lot of sense dude.
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Melvin Stinkrod said on February 17, 2011
Hey, I thought they were such “sophisticated investors”. Guess not. The VCs apparently need the SEC to look out for them too. No problem. Apply REG D to everyone or no one at all. As it is, REG D is blatantly unconstitutional.
jaycee said on February 18, 2011
Flawed Logic… Cuban assumes that late stage is buying out early stage and that early stage isn’t investing their prorata to maintain their % ownership.
Hear say at best Connie.
the cynical investor said on February 18, 2011
Spot on Mark !
This year or next year the latest there will be the big awakening !
idont said on February 18, 2011
The scheme is for kids, this one is even bigger: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ITMEZImvNio